Election Watch

Key polls around the world

Canada:

Canadians went to the polls for the fourth time in seven years on 2 May, delivering a decisive victory to Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party and a crushing defeat for the once dominant Liberals. The Conservatives, having won the two previous elections but only with enough seats to form minority governments, secured an elusive majority, winning 167 of the 308 electoral districts. For the first time ever, the Liberal Party was pushed into third place, overtaken by the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) which took 105 seats, well above its previous record of 43. The NPD also decimated the vote of the separatist Bloc Québécois, which managed to retain only four of the 47 seats it had previously held. Green Party leader Elizabeth May became the Greens’ first and only elected member of parliament.

The elections were triggered by a vote of no confidence in late March, when the Harper government was found to be in contempt of parliament because of its failure to supply accurate costs for anti-crime programmes, corporate income tax cuts and plans to purchase F-35 fighter jets from the USA. It seemed likely that Harper would soon use his new majority to enact these measures, now that he was more confident of sustained popular support.

Singapore:

In elections on 7 May, the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) recorded its worst result since separation from Malaysia in 1965, securing only 60.1 percent of the vote down from 66.6 percent in 2006 and 75.3 percent in 2001.Many lower-income voters were frustrated with stagnant wages, Singapore’s rising cost of living, and the rapid influx of foreign workers, as well as the PAPs perceived arrogance.

But, despite the dip in their share of the popular vote, the PAP still managed to retain 81 seats in the 87-member parliament, thanks to an electoral system that is tilted against the opposition. The prevalence of ‘Group Representation Constituencies’ (GRCs), requiring seats to be contested by slates of four to six candidates, has, in the past, made it difficult for smaller parties to field representatives in more than half of these seats. This year the opposition was coordinated and managed to run in all but one of the multi-member constituencies, gaining its first-ever GRC slate victory in Aljunied, unseating foreign minister George Yeo in the process.

Nigeria:

The elections held at all levels of government in Nigeria during April were widely judged to be the fairest ever conducted in the country, despite the fact that there was widespread rioting in the aftermath, with the loss of an estimated 800 lives. In the presidential ballot, Goodluck Jonathan took approximately 59 percent of the votes cast, against 32 percent for his nearest rival, Muhammadu Buhari.

Jonathan, representing the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), won by very large margins in southern and Middle Belt states while Buhari, standing for the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), won the majority of votes in northern states. The National Assembly polls also gave the PDP a clear lead, with the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) taking second place, significantly ahead of the CPC. At the state level, however, the 36 governorships were distributed primarily between the PDP (with 24 states across the country), the ACN (in the southwest) and the All Nigeria People’s Party (in the north-east and Zamfara state), with the CPC winning only in Nassarawa state.

The performance of the Independent National Electoral Commission, headed by Attihiru Jega, who was appointed last year to provide new leadership, was widely praised.

Seychelles:

James Michel secured a third term as President ensuring that his Lepep Party’s 34-year rule will continue for another five years. His nearest rival, Anglican priest Wavel Ramkalawan, won 41.43 percent of the vote compared to Michel’s 55.46 percent. Voting took place over three days (19-21 May) to give residents on the outlying islands an opportunity to participate. Just over 80 percent of Seychelles’ 69,000 registered voters cast their ballot, with turnout in some districts exceeding 90 percent.

Peru:

In a second round presidential run-off on 5 June, left-winger Ollanta Humala narrowly defeated Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori who is currently serving a 25 year sentence for corruption and human rights abuses committed while in office. In 2006 Humala, a former Lieutenant-Colonel, had come close to winning the presidency when he ran on a platform modelled on the policies of Venezuela’s socialist President Hugo Chávez. Humala’s move to more a centrist position during the 2011 campaign did little to allay the fears of investors and the Lima stockmarket index plunged 12.5 percent the day after his victory, registering its biggest-ever daily fall. Humala’s application of economic policies will be closely watched in a country that has witnessed strong growth and new investment in recent years but has long been beset by significant social and racial divisions.

Turkey:

Recept Tayyip Erdogan became the first Turkish leader to win three consecutive elections in a nationwide ballot on 12 June. His Justice and Development Party (AK) picked up just under 50 percent of the vote, which translates into 326 seats in the grand national assembly. The result falls short of the two-thirds majority the AK needed to unilaterally rewrite the constitution and was less than the three-fifths majority that would have allowed it to put its own proposals for change directly to a public referendum. Analysts said that Erdogan, who is barred from standing for a fourth term in office due to AK party rules, may be planning to increase the powers of the president, a position he hopes to occupy himself. The secular Republican People’s Party secured 135 seats – its best result for almost three decades – while the far-right Nationalist Movement Party won 53 seats, down 18 from 2007. The pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party did well, returning 36 deputies all of whom campaigned as independents. Turnout was high at 84.5 percent.

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