Insecure, inefficient and high-carbon – a warning about the future
The window of opportunity is closing on changing global policy directions to avoid “an insecure, inefficient and highcarbon energy system”, warns the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its 2011 World Energy Outlook (WEO).
“Governments need to introduce stronger measures to drive investment in efficient and low-carbon technologies,” said IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven. “The Fukushima nuclear accident, the turmoil in parts of the Middle East and North Africa and a sharp rebound in energy demand in 2010, which pushed CO2 emissions to a record high, highlight the urgency and the scale of the challenge.”
“As each year passes without clear signals to drive investment in clean energy, the ‘lock-in’ of high-carbon infrastructure is making it harder and more expensive to meet our energy security and climate goals,” said Fatih Birol, IEA chief economist.
The WEO’s central scenario assumes that recent government commitments are implemented in a cautious manner, primary energy demand increases by one third between 2010 and 2035, with 90 percent of the growth in non-OECD economies. In this perspective, China will consolidate its position as the world’s largest energy user – consuming nearly 70 percent more energy than the USA by 2035.
The share of fossil fuels in global primary energy consumption could fall from around 81 percent today to 75 percent in 2035. Renewables are likely to increase from 13 percent to 18 percent in 2035, underpinned by subsidies that will rise from US$64 billion in 2010 to $250 billion in 2035 – support that in some cases cannot be taken for granted in this age of fiscal austerity. By contrast, subsidies for fossil fuels amounted to $409 billion in 2010.
Global oil demand will, however, continue to rise – from 87 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 to 99 million b/d in 2035 – with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. The passenger vehicle fleet will double to almost 1.7 billion in 2035. Alternative technologies, such as hybrid and electric vehicles that use oil more efficiently or not at all, continue to advance but they will take time to penetrate markets. The use of other fossil fuels, especially coal and gas, will also continue to rise around the world.
The trillion-dollar clean energy adventure
Whether it was spent on a biomass co-generation plant in Brazil, a 396 MW wind farm in Mexico or one of many wind farms in China, the world has now invested its trillionth dollar on clean energy projects – or at least that much since the Bloomberg New Energy research group began counting in 2004.
A sign of the times is the interest of the financial markets and private equity investors in the development of wind farms and other renewables. For example, one of the world’s largest energy investors, First Reserve of the USA, has just announced a US$1 billion joint venture with Spain’s Renovalia Energy to develop more wind farms in Canada, Hungary, Romania and Spain.
China led the way in wind energy development in the first half of 2011, accounting for 43 percent of the world market for wind turbines, and now has the highest installed wind power capacity – with 52.8 GW of the world’s total installed capacity of 215 GW, according to the World Wind Energy Association. China’s fiscal and tax incentives, and direct public financial support, have helped push this drive.
India, which already has 14.6 GW of wind capacity, is aiming to add a further 10.5 GW in the near future.
London gets tough on emissions
The introduction of tough emissions regulations for trucks, buses and vans moving around most of Greater London will provide a short-term boost for vehicle manufacturers as businesses rush to upgrade their fleets to more fuel efficient models. Owners also have the option of fitting filters over exhaust pipes, but these have to be registered and tested. Vehicles that do not meet the new emissions standards will be fined either £100 or £200 per day.
Launched on 3 January, the Low Emission Zone could catch some 1 million van owners around the UK unawares, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders warned. Within London itself, it has been estimated that some 85,000 vans will not meet the new emissions standards.
The attractions of high-speed rail
High-speed railway systems and trains are being introduced at an unprecedented pace. By 2014, they will be operating in a further 10 countries, in addition to the 14 that already have them in some form or another. The environmental attraction is that the calculated carbon dioxide emissions per passenger-km are only a quarter of those for cars and passenger aircraft.
The total number of high-speed trains in the world will reach 3,700 by 2014, and the available track have increased from 17,000 km at present to some 43,000 km, according to Worldwatch Institute researcher Michael Renner. The currently leading high-speed systems of the world are those of China, Japan, Spain, France and Germany, while among the countries actively introducing such systems are the USA, Turkey, Italy and Portugal. France leads the way in Europe – high-speed rail already accounts for 62 percent of total passenger rail travel.
Electric truck gets a supermarket test
After building the world’s largest electric truck yet to be put on the public roads, which is able to carry 5.5 tonnes of goods, Renault has lent its model to a logistics company for testing. It will supply fresh products to branches of the supermarket chain Carrefour in and around the French city of Lyon, for the period of a year to see how it performs.
The truck’s ability to operate completely silently favours the supermarket business by allowing for early morning deliveries. It has an operating range of 100 km, and recharging the lithium ion battery packs takes eight hours.
