Election Watch: Key polls around the world

Costa Rica: Luis Guillermo Solís Rivera of the centre-left Citizen’s Action Party took office as the new President of Costa Rica in May, after winning a run-off against Johnny Araya Monge of the former President’s centre-left National Liberation Party. Solís is the first member of the Citizens’ Action Party to serve as President of Costa Rica; the party’s main focus is on reducing corruption in Costa Rica. Voting went to a second round after no candidate received the 40 per cent needed to avoid an election run-off. Solís received the most votes with 30.64 per cent in the first round of the election, while Araya secured just 29.71 per cent. In the run-off, held in April, Solís was declared the winner after receiving 77.81 per cent of the votes, to 22.19 per cent held by Araya. Araya officially ended campaigning for the elections in March, after a poll from Seminario Universidad showed him trailing by 43 percentage points; however he was constitutionally prohibited from dropping out. Voter turnout was 56 per cent, marking the highest level of voter abstinence in 60 years.

Guinea-Bissau: Guinea-Bissau held presidential elections this year, following two years of rule by a national unity government (a broad coalition of all main parties). The new President, José Mario Vaz, took office in June. Initial elections, held in April, went to a second round after no candidate received an absolute majority. A run-off between Vaz of the left-wing African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde, and independent candidate and former head of civil aviation Nuno Gomes Nambiam was held in May. Vaz was the clear winner with 61.92 per cent, while Nabiam received just 38.08 per cent. Voter turnout was 76 per cent. The country previously held presidential elections in January 2012 following the death of former President Malam Bacai Sanhá, however, a coup d’état ensued following the first round, leading to the arrest of both presidential candidates and the installation of the national unity government. Planned elections in November 2013 did not go ahead due to funding problems.

Algeria: April elections in Algeria saw the re-election of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika of the left-wing National Liberation Front, despite concerns about his health. The 77-year-old premier has rarely appeared in public since suffering a stroke last year. Due to his ill health, Bouteflika did not personally campaign in the run up to the elections, but still secured a landslide victory with 81.53 per cent of the votes. Independent candidate Ali Benflis came a distant second with 12.18 per cent of the votes. Voter turnout was 49.42 per cent. The elections were highly contested by the Movement of Society for Peace and the Islamic Renaissance Movement of Islamists, which boycotted the polls claiming that Bouteflika was unfit to run for presidency. A further three presidential candidates pulled out of the running, saying that the results were a foregone conclusion.

Macedonia: In the elections for the Macedonian Assembly, held in April, the opposition Social Democratic Union of Macedonia declared that the party would not recognise the election results. The elections saw success for the ruling right-wing Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization/Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity/Democratic Alternative, which came out on top with 42.21 per cent of the votes. The social democrats secured just 24.9 per cent. Voter turnout was 61 per cent. Leader of the opposition Zoran Zaev has denounced the administration as a dictatorship, calling for the formation of an interim government. Zaev suggests that results, which show stronger support for Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski than the previous elections in 2011, cannot be trusted. Presidential elections in Macedonia were also held in April and saw the re-election of Gjorge Ivanov of the centre-to-right-wing Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity. He received 51.67 per cent of the votes in a run-off after turnout for the initial poll fell short of the 50 per cent necessary to avoid a run-off.

Panama: Presidential elections in Panama in May saw the appointment of Juan Carlos Varela of the centre-right Panameñista Party. Varela’s campaign focused on combating corruption and inequality, while devolving the highly concentrated executive power preferred by former President Ricardo Martinelli of the centre-right Democratic Change party. Varela is said to have fallen out of favour with  Martinelli after standing down as Minister of Foreign Relations in 2011. Martinelli was prohibited from running for a consecutive term by the country’s constitution and will be unable to run for re-election for a further two terms. He has come under widespread criticism with many seeing him as having a strong influence over his party’s presidential candidate, José Domingo Arias. Results for the election were close, with Varela, who stood as Vice-President of Panama, securing 39.09 per cent of the votes. The former ruling party’s candidate Arias finished second in the election with 31.4 per cent, while Juan Carlos Navarro of the centre-left Democratic Revolutionary Party finished third with 28.14 per cent. Voter turnout was 76.78 per cent, with Varela sworn in as president in July.

Lithuania: Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė was re-elected for a second term in May, making her the first Lithuanian president in history to run two consecutive terms. Grybauskaitė attributes her popularity in part to her reputation for plain speaking, leading to the nickname ‘the Iron Lady’, formerly given to one of Grybauskaitė’s political role models, Margaret Thatcher. The elections went to a second round when President Grybauskaitė  failed to secure the overall majority needed to avoid a run-off despite finishing first with 46.61 per cent. In the first round, former Acting Prime Minister Zigmantas Balčytis of the centre-left Social Democratic Party of Lithuania won 13.84 per cent of the votes. Turnout was 52.14 per cent. The second round of presidential elections was held at the end of May, concurrently with elections for the 11 Lithuanian members of the European Parliament. Grybauskaitė claimed the victory with 59.05 per cent.

Malawi: Highly contested presidential elections took place in Malawi in May, bringing success for Peter Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party, the younger brother of former President Bingu Wa Mutharika, who died in office in 2012. The elections were considered to be fraudulent by incumbent President Joyce Banda of the People’s Party, who, having fallen behind in the voting, ordered the annulment of the polls after insisting that she could not inflict the election results on the Malawian people. Despite Banda’s attempt to discredit the elections, Mutharika was sworn in as the new President on 31 May. The elections were also criticised as not credible by the governance body Centre for Human Rights and Rehabilitation, and through an analysis by media group Nation Publication Limited. The Malawi Electoral Commission acknowledged that there were discrepancies, with 58 polling stations across the country registering a turnout of over 100 per cent. Election results saw Mutharika secure 36.4 per cent of the votes, while Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party came second with 27.8 per cent. Incumbent Banda came in third with just 20.2 per cent of the votes. Voter turnout was estimated at 90 per cent.

Belgium: Elio Di Rupo resigned as Prime Minister of Belgium in May, following parliamentary elections in which the centre-right New Flemish Alliance came out on top. Di Rupo handed in his resignation to King Philip the day after the elections, with the monarch asking the government to continue in a caretaker capacity. It is expected that Bart De Wever, leader of the New Flemish Alliance, will put together a governing coalition. Results of the elections saw the New Flemish Alliance securing 20.3 per cent of the votes and 34 of the 150 seats in the Belgian parliament. Di Rupo’s centre-left Socialist Party received just 11.7 per cent of the votes, holding on to 25 seats, and the centre-right Christian Democratic and Flemish received 11.7 per cent and 18 seats. Other parties in the Belgian parliament include the centre-right Reformist Movement with 18 seats, the centre-right Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats with 14, the centre-left Socialist Party Different with 12, the centre-left Humanist Democratic Centre with nine, Groen with six, Ecolo with six, the right-wing Flemish Interest with three and the far-left Workers’ Party of Belgium with two.

Colombia: Presidential elections went to a second round in May after no candidate secured more than 50 per cent in the first round of voting. Initially Óscar Iván Zuluaga of the right-wing Democratic Centre came in first place with 31.1 per cent of the votes, while incumbent Juan Manuel Santos of the centre-right Social Party of National Unity fell just short with 27.3 per cent. Other candidates included Marta Lucía Ramírez of the centre-right Conservative Party with 16.5 per cent, Clara López Obregón of the left-wing Alternative Democratic Pole with 16.2 per cent and Enrique Peñalosa of the Green Alliance with 8.8 per cent. In the presidential run-off held in June incumbent Santos secured a second term in office, with 53.1 per cent of the votes, leaving Zuluaga behinds with 46.9 per cent. Voter turnout was 47.9 per cent.

Ukraine: Presidential elections held in May saw success for billionaire and chocolate tycoon Petro Poroshenko. There are high hopes for Poroshenko, who aims to resolve the conflicts that have gripped the country throughout 2014. The independent candidate secured a landslide victory with 54.7 per cent of the votes. Yuliya Tymoshenko of the centre-right All-Ukrainian Union ‘Fatherland’ came second with just 12.9 per cent, while Oleh Lyashko of the left-wing Radical Party secured 8.32 per cent. Voter turnout was 50 per cent. Poroshenko will take the seat of former President Viktor Yanukovych, who lost the presidency in February when he was ousted following anti-government protests. The subsequent revolt prompted the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and the rise of several pro-Russian separatist sects in the east of the country, all of which present a massive challenge to the new President. In a victory rally following his successful election, Poroshenko announced that the immediate moves of the new presidency would be to “concentrate on ending the war, ending the chaos, ending the disorder and bringing peace to Ukrainian soil, to a united, single Ukraine”.

Egypt: In presidential elections held in May, the country made history by democratically electing the former military chief Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as President. El-Sisi has vowed to lead Egypt through important changes, compensate for what the country has missed and correct the mistakes of the past. El-Sisi was sworn in as President in June, with spectators observing the peaceful transition between interim President Adly Mansour and the new President addressing the nation in front of the Supreme Constitutional Court’s General Assembly in Cairo. El-Sisi was declared the winner of the peaceful presidential elections after securing a landslide victory of 96.9 per cent, with Hamdeen Sabahi securing just 3.1 per cent. Voter turnout was 47.5 per cent. Celebrations erupted in the capital with fireworks and balloons bearing the new leaders face as news of el-Sisi’s success spread.

India: Narendra Modi of the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) became Prime Minister of India in May, following a month of elections for the 543 seats of the Lok Sabha. Following the announcement of the results, a spokesperson for the nationalist BJP called the predicted landslide a “people’s victory”. The general elections took place over a number of days between April and May. The election results show a decisive victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, a centre-right coalition of political parties. The BJP secured 282 of Lok Sabha seats, winning 31 per cent of the votes. The centre-left India National Congress received 44 seats, securing 19.3 per cent of the votes; the centrist All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam secured 37 seats; and the centre-left All India Trinamool Congress, 34. Nationwide frustrations with the state of the country under India National Congress rule appeared to have resulted in high voter turnout, which broke records with 66.38 per cent eligible adults casting ballots.

Syria: Bashar al-Assad of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party secured a third term as President of Syria in June in the country’s first multi-candidate election since the Ba’ath party first came to power. Incumbent Assad secured a landslide victory with 92.2 per cent of the votes, while runner-up Hassan al-Nouri of the National Initiative for Administration and Change in Syria received just 4.5 per cent, and Independent Maher Hajjar came in third with 3.3 per cent. Many Syrians believe that Assad is capable of bringing a peaceful end to the Syrian Civil War, which has gripped the Middle East for the past three years. The conflict began with peaceful demonstrations for reforms in March 2011 and has since escalated into a full-blown war. Several opposition groups boycotted the election and voting did not take place in rebel controlled areas of the republic or areas under Kurdish militia control. Many citizens travelled to areas under government control to take part. The official turnout was announced at 73.4 per cent.

Mauritania: In presidential elections held in June, incumbent Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz of the centrist Union for the Republic enjoyed a landslide victory, securing 81.9 per cent of the votes. The election results were rejected by unsuccessful candidate Biram Dah Ebeid of the Initiative for the Resurgence of the Abolitionist Movement, who came in distant second place with just 8.7 per cent. Ebeid described the elections as a “grotesque theatre”, claiming that the voting was marred by fraud and irregularities, and that incumbent Aziz’s control of state institutions ensured his victory. The other two unsuccessful candidates, Boydiel Ould Houmeid of the El Wiam party and Ibrahima Moctar Sarr of the Alliance for Justice and Democracy, accepted the results and congratulated the President on securing another term in office. Voter turnout was 56.5 per cent.

Indonesia: A new President will take office in Indonesia in October, after Joko Widodo of the Indonesian Democratic Party–Struggle came out on top in presidential elections held in July. Incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono of the Democratic Party was prevented from running for a third term under the Indonesian constitution. Widodo secured 53 per cent of the votes, while Prabowo Subianto of the Great Indonesia Movement Party fell just short with 47 per cent. Voter turnout was 69 per cent.

Libya: Libya seemed doomed to be without a legitimate parliament this year, as failed elections were held on three separate occasions in May and June. During the first two elections the parliament was unable to elect a prime minister as no candidate secured the 120 seats required by the constitution. A third election was held in which candidate Ahmed Matiq secured 121 votes and was sworn in as Prime Minister. Following his election, parliament gave a vote of confidence to Matiq’s proposed cabinet – but outgoing Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thani refused to hand over power to the new candidate, disputing the legitimacy of Matiq’s election. The Supreme Court later declared Matiq’s election unconstitutional and requested al-Thani to stay on as caretaker Prime Minister. A fourth round of elections was held at the end of June, at which time 188 independent candidates were elected to parliament. Twelve of the 200 seats remained empty due to boycotts and insufficient security measures across the country, which prevented elections from taking place. In September the parliament reappointed Abdullah al-Thani as Prime Minister. Voter turnout was 45 per cent.

Turkey: Presidential elections in Turkey in August saw success for the country’s incumbent Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of the centre-right Justice and Development Party. Erdoğan, who has served as Prime Minister of Turkey since 2003, secured a landslide victory with the pledge of creating a “new Turkey”. The elections are the first direct presidential elections to be held in the country since a constitutional amendment, drafted in 2007, stipulated that presidents should be elected by citizens rather than by members of parliament. Erdoğan obtained 52 per cent of votes cast, more than the 50 per cent needed to avoid a presidential run-off and far ahead of the nearest opponent independent Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu, who received just 38 per cent. Selahattin Demirtaş of the left-wing Peoples’ Democratic Party came in distant third with just ten per cent of the votes. Voter turnout was 74 per cent.

 

Indecision in the Middle East

Several recent elections in the Middle East this year have seen unusual results due to constitutional complications and electoral irregularities.

Libya seemed doomed to be without a legitimate parliament as failed elections were held on three separate occasions during May and June. A fourth and final round of elections in June eventually saw the successful election of the Libyan parliament.

However, while Libya has emerged from the fog of electoral confusion, other countries have not been so lucky.

Presidential elections in Afghanistan in June were plagued by widespread allegations of electoral fraud, resulting in the country being left without an elected president for several months. Both the independent Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah of the National Coalition of Afghanistan accused one another manipulating results.

Following months of audits of the elections by the Afghani Supreme Court, the presidential contenders finally reached an arrangement at the beginning of August to accept the outcome of an official election recount. As part of the agreement, a new position of chief executive has been created, which will function similarly to that of a prime minister and will be filled by the second place candidate. At the time of writing there was no official date as to when a result would be released.

Heading west, a series of failed elections have left Lebanon without a legitimate president since May when former President Michel Sleiman’s term officially expired. The powers of the presidency have fallen to the cabinet, headed by Prime Minister Tammam Salam for now.

Lebanon’s elections were initially held in April, with Lebanese MPs placing votes for presidential candidates. However, voting went to a second round after no candidate achieved a two-thirds majority as outlined in the Lebanese constitution. Samir Geagea of the Lebanese Forces Party received 38 per cent of the vote, while Henri Helou of the Progressive Socialist Party received 13 per cent.

A second round of elections was held in May; however, the constitution also stated that a two-thirds quorum of MPs must be met in order for a new president to be elected. This, and subsequent rounds, all failed to achieve this quota due to nationwide boycotts of the elections. At the time of writing an 12th round of voting was scheduled for 23 September.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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